South Africa
Apparel production on a global scale has increased but South Africa’s exports dwindle. We can link this to South Africa’s high unemployment figures, low productivity outputs and the misguided policy direction of collective bargaining.
South African imports of Clothing, Textile, Leather and Footwear products have increased by 425% in US Dollar terms between the years 2002 and 2009 (Sats SA), South Africa’s clothing exports decreased by a whopping 65% in 2009 compared to 2002 figures.
South Africa’s clothing sector has the potential to absorb much needed employment, but its potential is being eroded, in-fact it is being decimated by the union who has taken the Newcastle Clothing Industry Uprising personally and will do everything in its power to crush the instigators. Even though economist and labour market analysts are watching Newcastle, and seeing it as a potential to change the labour paradigm, Newcastle and its Chinese community have become an economic experiment that could go horribly wrong for both the wider community and more so for the outspoken Chinese factory owners.
Global Apparel Production
Global apparel production has grown by 6% in the first quarter of 2011 according to a report by UNIDO. Output in wearing apparel increased in developing countries by 12.8% compared to last year, whilst industrial countries output for the same product fell by 4.7%. Global textile output was only 6.12%. Developing countries saw a 7.45% growth and developed countries only 3.4%. The report does not mention South Africa.
Global Manufacturing Output
The major contributor to the manufacturing output growth for developing countries was China. It’s output for the same period increased by 15%.
Turkey had a growth of 13.8%, Mexico 7.4% and India increased its manufacturing production output by 5.1%. Most European countries saw growth, whereas Greece saw a negative growth of 6.9%. North Africa had negative growth.
Consumption in the global apparel industry is highly concentrated in three main regions: the United States, the European Union, and Japan. In 2008, the European Union (EU-27, including intra-EU-27 trade) accounted for nearly half (47.3%) of total world apparel imports of US$ 376 billion, while the United States accounted for 22%, Japan for 6.9%, and the Russian Federation for 5.7%.
Together, the United States, the EU-27, and Japan represented over three-quarters of world apparel imports in 2008, which is down from the 82.4% they accounted for in 1995. Particularly notable is the steady decline in the U.S. share of global apparel imports, which fell from a peak of 32.1% in 2000 to 22% in 2008, and Japan’s drop from 11.5% in 1995 to 6.9% in 2008.
By the end of 2009, the economic recession that hit the apparel retail markets of all the advanced industrial countries had rippled throughout the supply chain in developing economies as well. A striking trend is that the largest low-cost apparel producers in the developing world, such as China, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, have actually managed to increase their export shares in major global markets. This may reflect a substitution effect of the economic recession, in which the lowest cost suppliers gain market share vis-à-vis more expensive rivals.
China is the clear winner by far in the global apparel export race during the past 15 years. Between 1995 and 2008, China more than doubled its share of global apparel exports from 15.2% to 33.2 %, and it had a fivefold increase in the value of its apparel exports, from $24 billion to $120 billion. Other than the EU-27, which includes intra-European Union trade, the next six apparel exporters combined (Turkey, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico) account for less than half (15.4%) of China’s export total in 2008.
South Africa
South Africa is facing an unemployment crisis. According to a new report the number of unemployed is in the region of 25% or 41% of the population between 16 and 64 have “any kind of job,” either in the formal or informal economy. This is 30 percentage points lower than China and 25 points lower than countries such Brazil and Indonesia. The report says for South Africa to get to an employment rate of 60% nearly 19 million jobs would have to be created. It is estimated the South Africa’s economy would need to grow by 7 percent a year for the next 15 years if it were to raise employment figures to international levels.
Economic growth over the past 10 years has been heavily reliant on government spending, and this, according to the report is unsustainable. What is needed is export growth to grow manufacturing and create space for employment in labour-intensive manufacturing sectors, however, because employment in this sector is dependent on labour cost and productivity output a more enticing labour regime is required. The study says high labour cost (wages) can only be sustained if it equates to strong productivity output, but the competitiveness of South Africa’s labour is hindered by “agreements reached in wage bargaining councils by some employers and trade union [which are] extended to other business [in other words –non participative companies] in these industries.” The study says, “centralized bargaining can sever the link between negotiations over pay and improved productivity.”
The study states, “empirical research has found that firms covered by bargaining councils pay wages that are 10 to 21 per cent higher than those paid by similar firms in magisterial districts in which firms are not covered by bargaining councils. They also employ between 8 to 13 per cent fewer people. Those industrial sectors also tend to be more dominated by larger firms and to comprise fewer small firms and entrepreneurs.” This is no really the case in the clothing sector. However, it is the larger firms who are more dominant in policy and wage decisions.
“Three different arguments were made about the desirability and probable impact of significant reform of the labour market.
One view is that this would lower the cost of labour, boost employment, and provide a vital signal that government policy was becoming more business-friendly. This would help to raise business confidence, and boost investment levels. By raising the costs and ‘hassle factor’ of labour, the current labour market regime encouraged employers to hire smaller numbers of skilled workers. This works against the emergence of firms hiring large numbers of unskilled, inexperienced workers, making it more difficult to resolve the unemployment crisis.
A second view is that lowering the cost of labour would not measurably increase employment levels by very much and is undesirable because it jeopardises the incomes of millions of working South Africans.
A third group disputes this latter claim. Labour market reforms would not reduce the incomes of existing employees and this misconception makes reform a harder proposition to sell than it need be. Even though labour market regulations raised the cost of labour, existing businesses had compensated for this by selecting products and production methods that relied on skills and technology. These businesses were profitable, which means they have balanced relatively high wages with relatively high levels of productivity.
Therefore, labour market reforms that allowed firms to hire less skilled workers at lower wages need not lead to large-scale job losses at high-productivity/high-wage firms. While the effect would be to lower average wages, existing workers’ salaries need not be affected.”
The study goes further, “Some analysts argue that South Africa’s unemployment crisis can be explained by the reluctance of the unemployed to accept wages below a certain threshold – the ‘reservation wage’. Labour market surveys suggest that almost all jobless people say they are unemployed because they have not been offered any work, not because they have been offered work that pays too little.”
The study mentions Newcastle, which has become the central focal point of South Africa’s clothing sector. Unfortunately, the mere fact that the majority of clothing firms in this locality are owned by Chinese and have been the most vocal about the crisis facing South Africa’s clothing sector distorts the realities of the industry. The clothing union, Sactwu, exploits this to create misrepresentation about the Chinese community and often this is fueled by media reportage on the industry.
Intelligence emanating from industry sources reveals that the Bargaining Council has stated that any factory (after 22 December 2010) who now decides to register with the Bargaining council will have to become 100% compliant and not have the space to meet the phase-in regulations. Further information received is that the union is extremely angered about the legal application lodged against the labour minister and the National Bargaining Council for the Clothing Sector by five Newcastle clothing companies. The union has hinted that they will use every means at their disposal to contest the case and exhort more pressure on the Newcastle troublemakers. This is an extremely worrying situation. There are going to be casualties, and it is going to be Newcastle factories that will be the casualties. They are being isolated, systematically targeted and are receiving no collective support from the wider industry.
It is this very sector of the economy that has the potential to create the space to absorb unskilled workers and up-skill them so they can become productive members of the economy. However, it is these very same businesses that the clothing union is hell-bent on closing using the collective bargaining mandate.
The study says, “If South Africa is to build a more employment-intensive growth path, we need to rethink some key assumptions. The most pervasive of these is that the country should move progressively up the value chain, producing export goods with skilled labour and advanced technology rather than emphasizing goods made by large numbers of unskilled workers. Given the low skills and inexperience of most unemployed people, this approach will never create enough jobs. Instead, we should find and fill niches in the global supply chain for goods produced with more basic technology, and utilising relatively low-skilled workers.
These are opportunities being missed by the South African clothing sector. China’s clothing sector is undergoing major migration as companies are either relocating to their neighbors or outsourcing to countries like Vietnam, while others are moving inland where labour is even cheaper. While labour cost may be increasing, it productivity is also increasing, and this is the difference between China and South Africa. Increased wages in South Africa does not equate to increase or proportional productivity increases. The Chinese government has indicated that wages could increase by 80% by the year 2015. Employment in China’s clothing sector increased by nearly 70% while its productivity out-put grew four-fold in value. China intends to double its existing clothing production output by the year 2015 without the need of increasing the work force.
South Africa needs to address the gap between the poor productivity of young, unskilled, inexperienced workers and their employment costs. This requires a fundamental re-examination of the labour market regime with a view to facilitating the emergence of lower-wage industries and businesses that have enabled other countries to drive high and sustained rates of economic growth, and employ very large numbers of people.
Labour market reforms of this kind would create opportunities for people who could not expect to find jobs in existing industries and firms. Without the development of low-wage companies, South Africa will not be able to create the millions of jobs we need, or achieve higher rates of economic growth. South Africa needs to learn the lessons presented by Newcastle’s clothing industry. In this town (with an unemployment rate of 60 per cent), workers have shown that they are willing to accept wages below the minimum levels prescribed by the industry’s bargaining council, and have attracted more clothing factories as a result. By allowing firms to offer these sorts of wages, and workers to accept them, we could create new enterprises and industries with low and intermediate levels of wages and productivity. Events in the Newcastle clothing industry should be seen as a model for a new industrial structure rather an affront to South Africa’s self-image as a producer of high-value goods the report says.
Compiled by The ReDress Consultancy
21 June, 2010